ELAL: Estimated Revenue for 2024 Q1

2024-05-28 · epsilontal · Symbols: ELAL.TA
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As we wait for the Q1 results, I'll share my revenue estimates to validate my analysis later.

  • ELAL is the primary Israeli airline and has captured most of the market share since the war started.
  • This strong market position provides a stable foundation for my revenue estimations.
ELAL Revenue Chart

Revenue from Passenger Transport

  • Q1 Passengers: 1.36 million
  • Estimated Revenue per Passenger: $520 to $550
  • Total Passenger Revenue: $708 million to $750 million

Basis for Estimates:

ELAL operates at high capacity and travels through profitable routes (especially to the United States). Premium prices for business class tickets increased the average ticket price.

Revenue from Cargo Transport

  • 2023 Revenue: $113.7 million for around 68,700 tons ($1,655 per ton)
  • Q1 Cargo Transported: 17,540 tons
  • Estimated Q1 Revenue per Ton: Approximately $3,000
  • Total Cargo Revenue: Around $50 million

Basis for Estimates:

Considering the high rates of cargo transportation from 2023 and the fact that the alternative of sea cargo shipping has become more expensive, I estimate high rates of cargo air transport as well (see freight shipping trends).

I won't be surprised if ELAL reports more than $50 million in cargo revenue, reflecting an average value of about $3,000 per ton. Considering the alternatives of sea shipping have high rates, this estimation can potentially increase.

Total Revenues

  • Passenger Transport Revenue: $708 million to $750 million
  • Cargo Transport Revenue: Approximately $50 million
  • Projected Q1 2024 Revenue: $750 million to $800 million

Additional Considerations:

These revenue estimates do not include income from the Fly Card credit card and interest on high cash balances.

Conclusion

Based on my experience flying with ELAL during this recent year, considering that they are flying at full capacity and maintaining high business class rates for long-haul flights, I've kept a safety margin despite the high estimated revenues.

I would love to hear your thoughts: